This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code ‘GRINDERS ’ to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!
Last week, the PGA Tour season closed with a bang when Tom Kim punched his ticket to the FedEx Cup playoffs with a victory at the Wyndham Championship. The young upstart impressed over the last couple of months and reached the pinnacle with an exceptional Sunday of golf. Kim joins the field of 125 in the first round of the FedEx Cup playoffs.
We will go over betting odds, the course, statistics, and of course the best field we’ve seen since The Open Championship. Who will survive into the next round? Let’s start with betting odds.
At the time of this writing – August 9th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
Here are the winners of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind:
Before we dig into this year’s field, a few things must be clarified. The first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs was previously the Northern Trust. Tony Finau won the Northern Trust last season. When doing research digging into information about this event, be mindful of the changes to the schedule. As a WGC event, this event was a no-cut event with a shorter field. This season, the event will have a cut with a more robust field of 125 players.
Further, this event was previously the St. Jude Classic but played at a different course. The editions we should consider for course history purposes are the aforementioned three events in Memphis.
As for the field, we finally have a field to get excited about. After trudging through the end of summer muck of the 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage, and Wyndham Classic, the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up this week. For information on the field, the PGA Tour breaks down the players here. Three players will not tee it up, cutting the field to 122 players. Daniel Berger and Lanto Griffin will miss with injuries while Tommy Fleetwood will pass after the loss of his mother.
Keep in mind, that the cut line is important for this event but does not mean a player will not play when the field cuts to 70 players next week. Several of the players in the field could miss the cut and move on to next week. For that reason, stay tuned to news updates for players that withdraw because their spot is pretty secure next week.
Scottie Scheffler begins the week in the top spot while all of our typical golf superstars return to our television screens. Tony Finau comes in with the hottest form possible but will finally contend with a stacked field. Glancing through the odds board, I believe there is plenty of value because of players’ recent form and the nuance of TPC Southwind. Jon Rahm sees a number we have not been offered this entire season. Further, ball striking machines like Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland come at very nice prices.
Do you like golf courses with plenty of water? Well, the PGA Tour has something in store for you this weekend. Since 2004, 5,000 balls have found water at TPC Southwind. The course’s greatest defense, players will navigate (pun intended) through various water hazards all over the course.
As a Par 70, the course stretches out a bit at greater than 7,200 yards. That said, Abraham Ancer was able to win the WGC event last season in a playoff not being the longest player on tour. In fact, the only thing that seems to stick out in the short history of this event is that any type of golfer can win… if they are able to keep the ball out of trouble and be precise with their iron play.
The around-the-green play is not awfully daunting at this course and three puts are down relative to other courses players see. As is the case at TPC Twin Lakes, big numbers lurk everywhere because of the water. Otherwise, players will need to hit greens and present themselves with a high volume of opportunities for birdies. With the winning scores in the teens so far, I don’t anticipate a birdiefest. Instead, for the first time in a long time, I anticipate players will need to save par and avoid blowup holes.
We are looking pretty hard at ball striking this week. Players need to play well off-the-tee but not simply by finding fairways. The length is considerable enough that players will not want to play with long irons in hand all round. Instead, the majority of approach shots prove to be in that 150-yard range. So, players like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and Cameron Young will do themselves favors if long and accurate off the tee.
Having said that, I will likely place a larger emphasis on SG: Approach. Iron play will be crucial as birdies might not come in bunches as they have over the past few weeks. Players like Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa deserve a long look given their approach pedigree. At the prices posted on sports betting sites, I do not see avoiding these names on betting cards or DFS lineups alike.
Additionally, I will include SG: OTT , Par 4’s 450-500, SG: Putting, and proximity to the hole from 150-175 yards in the model I use this week. I will certain look at course history but to a smaller level given the difference in the tournament format.
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Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
We begin our card with the first member of what I am dubbing Team “No Putt,” Collin Morikawa. Recently, Morikawa’s normal ball-striking form has been pedestrian at best. Perhaps, time off since his trip overseas to The Open Championship can recenter the prodigy.
When Collin Morikawa is on, the iron play is a thing of beauty. Opportunities aplenty, we are betting on his ceiling here with the outright bet. To start the season, betting sites continued to price him for his performance last season after hoisting the Claret Jug. We are finally getting a discount as his season to forget is ready to culminate.
That said, when Morikawa is in form with his irons, we would all pay 33-1 for him to win in any field. He has shown that the quality of field will not shake his poise with two major victories. Putting is simply the issue.
In 2020, Justin Thomas won the event losing strokes on the green and Brooks Koepka tied for second also losing with the flatstick. This event at this course has shown that any type of player can win. Collin Morikawa is cut from the same cloth as Justin Thomas with a slightly less appealing around-the-green game.
I don’t care about around-the-green play as much when betting outrights. The biggest defense of this course is the high volume of water everywhere. With a return to precision, Collin Morikawa should present himself more than enough opportunities to make birdie and propel himself back into the conversation. We start here for 1.2 units.
Surely, Viktor Hovland can join Team “No Putt” but he actually offers a better price with a better putter than the aforementioned Morikawa. Similarly dominant in the ball-striking category, Hovland has rolled the rock well enough (30th) recently to make him a consideration for me this week.
Like Morikawa, Hovland was in a bit of a rut until The Open Championship. Then, only an average Sunday derailed a great performance for the young gun – spending two days playing with Rory McIlroy as the two were chased down by Cameron Smith on the back nine. Hovland was exceptional with driver and irons and putted very well at St. Andrews. His normal foil, around-the-green play, is less important to me this week – especially when betting outrights.
At his best, Viktor Hovland should not be 40-1. We happily add him for a full unit at BetMGM.
Our lost love, Corey Conners, is back in the fold. If I am going to bet on Team “No Putt,” then boy howdy, does our boy Corey belong on this list.
Conners, like our previous two golfers, is a ball-striker through and through. Ranking eighth in ballstriking and 6th in SG: OTT , Conners will like put himself in position to make birdie often. The question is, can he roll in enough putts?
I don’t know. Probably not. However, we don’t tend to see Conners at 66/1 that often anymore. He is either playing in a weaker field with a really short number or playing in a major and just not priced up enough. I think at 66/1 we can cheaply add him to our card and hope this is the week he gets hot on the greens. For 0.6 units, we can do worse.
Finally, we save the worst for last. The worst in putting that is…
Brendan Steele ranks 8th in SG: Approach and 3rd in SG: OTT . In SG: Putting… Brendan Steele ranks 120th.
I won’t include many longshots on this card and will likely have more interest in Steele for my DFS lineups. That said, if we are hoping for a ceiling putting week, Steele makes for a good play at such an elevated tag. He is only going to cost us 0.25 units as we hope he can cash in on several opportunities over four rounds.
I will likely add a couple of plays prior to Thursday’s lock time somewhere between the mid-range and the 100/1 number. We still have a bit of room with only 3.05 units on our card.
Net Units Rocket Mortgage/Wyndham: -13.95 units
Good luck this week, everyone. Check back on Twitter on Wednesday night for my final betting card and any insights.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.
Joe Cistaro has blogged on RotoGrinders since January 2017. He fell in love with daily fantasy sports after winning an NBA single-entry tournament on FanDuel in the fall of 2013. A small-time player, Joe enjoys writing about MLB and NBA DFS while connecting with the RotoGrinders community.
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